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Post by alldayaces on Dec 28, 2023 15:39:38 GMT -6
I hate to be the rumor guy and I hope they aren’t true.. but I heard Ben is injured? Anyone else heard any rumblings? I heard the same. We must have the same source.
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Post by austinace on Dec 28, 2023 15:44:00 GMT -6
I hate to be the rumor guy and I hope they aren’t true.. but I heard Ben is injured? Anyone else heard any rumblings? That would be a huge blow to our chances in this game.
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Post by austinace on Dec 28, 2023 15:49:01 GMT -6
...KenPom also has Evansville rated as the 4th "luckiest" team in the country so far meaning their results have grossly outperformed their metrics. A large part of why Evansville is rated the 4th luckiest team is that the KenPom has not factored in that Evansville is the most (or one of the most) improved teams in the country this year - so at this point it just thinks that we are "lucky". As more games are played, this will likely settle out. Not sure what else constitutes a team being lucky.
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Post by Atlanta Ace on Dec 28, 2023 15:57:53 GMT -6
...KenPom also has Evansville rated as the 4th "luckiest" team in the country so far meaning their results have grossly outperformed their metrics. A large part of why Evansville is rated the 4th luckiest team is that the KenPom has not factored in that Evansville is the most (or one of the most) improved teams in the country this year - so at this point it just thinks that we are "lucky". As more games are played, this will likely settle out. Not sure what else constitutes a team being lucky. I think his metrics has us grossly underrated.
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Post by aceloverlarry on Dec 28, 2023 15:58:42 GMT -6
I hate to be the rumor guy and I hope they aren’t true.. but I heard Ben is injured? Anyone else heard any rumblings? I heard the same. We must have the same source. Hearing the same and that it’s going to be a multi game injury. Tough news as we start conference play. Will be interesting to see how it affects the offense. While not a one man team by any means, the offense is much more dynamic when Ben’s having a good game.
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Post by ad1770 on Dec 28, 2023 16:10:09 GMT -6
I heard the same. We must have the same source. Hearing the same and that it’s going to be a multi game injury. Tough news as we start conference play. Will be interesting to see how it affects the offense. While not a one man team by any means, the offense is much more dynamic when Ben’s having a good game. If true, Josh, CB3, Tanner, and dare I say it, Bobe are going to have to step up for him.
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Post by austinace on Dec 28, 2023 16:17:02 GMT -6
I could see Michael Day playing if depth is needed up front.
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Post by 65pointgame on Dec 28, 2023 16:19:32 GMT -6
A large part of why Evansville is rated the 4th luckiest team is that the KenPom has not factored in that Evansville is the most (or one of the most) improved teams in the country this year - so at this point it just thinks that we are "lucky". As more games are played, this will likely settle out. Not sure what else constitutes a team being lucky. I think his metrics has us grossly underrated. From KenPom --
Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.
Also this: Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
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Post by aceloverlarry on Dec 28, 2023 16:54:42 GMT -6
Hearing the same and that it’s going to be a multi game injury. Tough news as we start conference play. Will be interesting to see how it affects the offense. While not a one man team by any means, the offense is much more dynamic when Ben’s having a good game. If true, Josh, CB3, Tanner, and dare I say it, Bobe are going to have to step up for him. Would definitely be a great time for Cam Haffner to regain his form and start shooting 40+% from 3 on a high volume of shots. Will definitely take a group effort to overcome what he brings to the team.
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Post by ATP on Dec 28, 2023 17:39:11 GMT -6
From KenPom --
Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.
Also this: Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
I think anyone who puts a lot of stock into predictability of a group of college athletes is probably just wishing for it to all wash out in the end. You can depend on size and depth as being somewhat predictable, as well as a heavily weighted home court advantage such as they'd have at Duke or BYO. Is it luck if two of your starters come down with the stomach flu 8 hours before a game?
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Post by bandwagon fan on Dec 28, 2023 18:52:29 GMT -6
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Post by Incognito on Dec 28, 2023 20:04:32 GMT -6
Kenpom has certainly monetized his mathematics into a life of riches and respect. But any attempt to measure luck is on shaky ground. I won't bother challenging his mumbo jumbo on the matter. I have no doubt that he can word it up to look reasonable to the most gullible. That leaves me out. I do think it is a clever addition to his portfolio. He predicted three wins by now and he makes bank on predictions. So why was he wrong on four others? Luck. He won't know that the Aces were lucky until after he was proven to be inaccurate. If he knew that they would be lucky four times in advance, he would have been 100% right. Aces luck got in the way of his perfection. Damn his bad luck. Of course, there is another possible reason that he was wrong four times so far. He hasn't spent a single second evaluating the new players or the old ones or the coaching staff. What looks like luck to him is just cold and detached algorithm vomit.
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Post by backstagedrunkard on Dec 28, 2023 20:44:35 GMT -6
I hate to be the rumor guy and I hope they aren’t true.. but I heard Ben is injured? Anyone else heard any rumblings? Unfortunately, I heard the same thing as well at the water cooler. If true, hopefully he won’t miss many games! Opportunity for other guys (Chuck Bailey and company) to step-up. Go Aces!
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Post by 83Ace on Dec 28, 2023 21:04:56 GMT -6
I hate to hear that about Ben. If he is injured and misses a few games, then we are definitely not the 4th luckiest team in the country.
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Post by db1972 on Dec 28, 2023 23:53:24 GMT -6
It is great to see BartTorvik and KenPom take center stage for discussion! There are a couple things that I would like to add some clarity on to hopefully help people's understanding.
Regarding the "Luck" metric, as 65pointgame mentioned, this is calculated entirely separately from the efficiency ratings. Think of it as current winning percentage compared to expected winning percentage. So far we have won every close game (notably Chattanooga and UNI in OT, and UT Martin, Miami OH, and Bellarmine by single digits). Realistically we should probably be 8-4 right now, and that's what "Luck" tries to capture.
Regarding game win probabilities, you can add the percentages together to get the projected full season win total (I.e. .1 vs. Cincinnati + .12 vs. Indiana St. + .73 vs. Murray St. + etc.).
To calculate the predicted probability of a losing streak of n games, take (1 - the probability of UE winning) multiplied together n times. To reuse with the case above, it would look as follows: (1-.1)*(1-.12)*(1-.73)=21% probability of losing our next 3 games. Using this formula, we are extremely unlikely to lose six in a row at any point during the season, even if we are technically underdogs 6 games in a row.
Regarding our current rating, I agree with the sentiments of most in the thread that we are currently still underrated. The systems are set up to only allow a limited amount of movement after any game. Normally this is a great plan to avoid overreacting to one or two bad games by a team, but has its flaws when the initial assessment of a team is grossly incorrect. I mostly chalk this up to the transfer portal as these systems rely heavily on the past season for its preseason predictions, and this is something that should be accounted for in the future. Until then, I will happily continue raking in money betting on overinflated lines for teams that retooled in the portal.
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