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Post by aceloverlarry on Feb 9, 2024 12:27:43 GMT -6
It depends on how you look at it. Do I think it is unlikely we get the 6th seed in St Louis? Yes. Do I think it’s highly unlikely we finish the season in a tie for 6th and end up 7th or 8th in St Louis? Not as much. If I’m reading this Hackman graph right, we have a 25% chance of the 6 seed if we finish .500 with a 50% chance of 7th and a 25% chance of 8th. If we can go 5-2, we should be in the 6th seed or better, but that’s going to take us showing up every night and playing damn good basketball down the stretch. I hope it happens but I’m not at the point of saying it’s likely yet. We’ll see how Saturday goes. It’s definitely possible, but we’re going to have to show up and play like we did Wednesday every game for the rest of the year. I see a clear path to the four seed now, especially with the win Wednesday. This has gotten kind of fun. I hope you’re right. We go 2-0 over the next week and I’ll agree completely. I’m just not that optimistic yet. There’s little margin for error for us to get to a 6 seed and absolutely no margin for error to get to a 4. I would love nothing more than for you to be right about all of this.
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Post by municup14 on Feb 9, 2024 13:52:46 GMT -6
Hell I'm tickled to death to have 6 conference wins and 15 total wins.And this is with our best player missing what 5 games,and not logging very many minutes in 3 or 4 other games.
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Post by austinace on Feb 9, 2024 16:10:13 GMT -6
Hell I'm tickled to death to have 6 conference wins and 15 total wins.And this is with our best player missing what 5 games,and not logging very many minutes in 3 or 4 other games. Ben actually missed eight of our 24 games (where he didn’t play a single minute due to his injury). That proves your point even more.
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Post by ibleedpurple on Feb 9, 2024 21:20:23 GMT -6
Great work on all the stats showing UE with Ben vs W/O Ben. No doubt he is our team leader and makes those around him better.
It is great to see the excitement just on this blog with the Bradley win. Like others said, it is great to be at 15 wins with 6 in the conference and chances to win more games. We need to stay healthy and play defense for 40 minutes to win any of the upcoming games. Hopefully we will pick up a few more wins and stay out of the bottom tier.
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Post by aceloverlarry on Feb 19, 2024 10:52:54 GMT -6
Looks like we’ve played ourselves into a position to essentially be locked into the 8-10 range. We’re probably going to be the 10 seed. Illinois State and Mo State have more winnable games down the stretch and both would likely have the tiebreakers over us if we end up in a tie.
Hopefully we can draw Murray in a 7-10 matchup. Even with our low seed, I think we can make some noise in STL. The margin for error is very slim though as we’ve seen the last few weeks. We could either be done on Thursday or make it to Saturday with only a few bounces being the difference.
Hopefully we end the season on a high note.
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Post by aceloverlarry on Feb 19, 2024 11:49:31 GMT -6
bball.notnothing.net/mvc.php?sport=mbbInteresting site that gives you final standing scenarios based on outcomes and tie breakers. If we win out and everything else goes by current expectations for the league, we finish in 7th. There’s a path to 6th but it’s going to take a lot of UIC and Valpo upsets. Realistically, we’re probably locked into the 9/10 spot based on the few different scenarios I’ve ran. Losing even one of the next 4 makes it pretty hard to get above 9 in the scenarios i ran.
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Post by ATP on Feb 19, 2024 12:27:19 GMT -6
UE is sitting where it belongs. What I'd like to see more are actual wins rather than moral victories, like almost reversing the Drake loss or the Murray loss. Eventually to become THAT team, you have to win the games. All in all, my comfort zone -- always -- is wanting them to have a 50-50 chance of beating anybody they play. That is not the same thing as a .500 season, which would be the same thing as settling. UE is neither of those yet.
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Post by db1972 on Feb 19, 2024 16:15:14 GMT -6
UE is sitting where it belongs. What I'd like to see more are actual wins rather than moral victories, like almost reversing the Drake loss or the Murray loss. Eventually to become THAT team, you have to win the games. All in all, my comfort zone -- always -- is wanting them to have a 50-50 chance of beating anybody they play. That is not the same thing as a .500 season, which would be the same thing as settling. UE is neither of those yet. We have definitely won more than our fair share of close/OT games so far this year. Despite back-to-back buzzer-beating losses, we're still at #23 in KenPom's Luck metric (winning % over expected). Also not sure what you mean about not having a .500 season, the only way we will finish under .500 is if we lose every remaining game.
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Post by ad1770 on Feb 19, 2024 16:52:38 GMT -6
Long and short of it all is this. Win Wednesday and we can finish no worse than 10 as we are currently three games up with four to play. There is no way we can finish in 12th as we are four games up on Valpo and swept the season series with them. Haven’t looked at the top end of where we can finish.
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Post by aceloverlarry on Feb 19, 2024 16:56:41 GMT -6
Long and short of it all is this. Win Wednesday and we can finish no worse than 10 as we are currently three games up with four to play. There is no way we can finish in 12th as we are four games up on Valpo and swept the season series with them. Haven’t looked at the top end of where we can finish. I think you’re looking at the wrong graph. He has 0 simulations where we finish 12th in the latest, and a 2% chance we finish 11th, which pretty well reflects all the scenarios you just laid out. We’ve got strong odds of 9/10 depending on how things shake out with tie breakers and win/loss of other teams. According to his graphs, there’s a small scenario where we end up as high as 5. I wasn’t able to make the right opponent win /loss combos to get that to happen on the other website, but I was able to get a scenario where we finish 6th, and it took us winning out and a lot of wins for UIC and Valpo against teams ahead of us, so it’s pretty unlikely that comes to fruition.
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Post by ad1770 on Feb 19, 2024 17:02:00 GMT -6
Long and short of it all is this. Win Wednesday and we can finish no worse than 10 as we are currently three games up with four to play. There is no way we can finish in 12th as we are four games up on Valpo and swept the season series with them. Haven’t looked at the top end of where we can finish. I think you’re looking at the wrong graph. He has 0 simulations where we finish 12th in the latest, and a 2% chance we finish 11th, which pretty well reflects all the scenarios you just laid out. We’ve got strong odds of 9/10 depending on how things shake out with tie breakers and win/loss of other teams. According to his graphs, there’s a small scenario where we end up as high as 5. I wasn’t able to make the right opponent win /loss combos to get that to happen on the other website, but I was able to get a scenario where we finish 6th, and it took us winning out and a lot of wins for UIC and Valpo against teams ahead of us, so it’s pretty unlikely that comes to fruition. In a way, think I agree that I would rather finish 10 with a Murray match up instead of a 9 spot with a Mo. St. matchup (and subsequent noon game on Thursday).
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Post by Ace78 on Feb 19, 2024 18:25:32 GMT -6
Indiana State has had an excellent season. It would appear they are going to be under tremendous pressure at Arch Madness. They will be expected to win it, due to their season success and all the accolades. However, their starters play most of the minutes, and their bench is very thin. Even with the opening round bye, it would seem that winning 3 games in 3 days will be a major chore.
The Aces have had a very good season and have really improved this past month. They recently had close losses, and even a close win, over some tough MVC competition. If the Aces are the 10 seed, I really like the fact they might match up with Murray State again. If we win that game, we would take on the no. 2 seed (either Drake or Indiana State). The Aces roster does have the depth and ability to compete well in day to day Arch Madness games. We might really surprise some people. I think we will be a dangerous team to play.
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Post by ATP on Feb 19, 2024 19:13:51 GMT -6
UE is sitting where it belongs. What I'd like to see more are actual wins rather than moral victories, like almost reversing the Drake loss or the Murray loss. Eventually to become THAT team, you have to win the games. All in all, my comfort zone -- always -- is wanting them to have a 50-50 chance of beating anybody they play. That is not the same thing as a .500 season, which would be the same thing as settling. UE is neither of those yet. We have definitely won more than our fair share of close/OT games so far this year. Despite back-to-back buzzer-beating losses, we're still at #23 in KenPom's Luck metric (winning % over expected). Also not sure what you mean about not having a .500 season, the only way we will finish under .500 is if we lose every remaining game. Don't take .500 as a literal percentage. If you don't play an even number of games, you will never reach it.
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Post by ATP on Feb 19, 2024 19:16:53 GMT -6
Indiana State has had an excellent season. It would appear they are going to be under tremendous pressure at Arch Madness. They will be expected to win it, due to their season success and all the accolades. However, their starters play most of the minutes, and their bench is very thin. Even with the opening round bye, it would seem that winning 3 games in 3 days will be a major chore. The Aces have had a very good season and have really improved this past month. They recently had close losses, and even a close win, over some tough MVC competition. If the Aces are the 10 seed, I really like the fact they might match up with Murray State again. If we win that game, we would take on the no. 2 seed (either Drake or Indiana State). The Aces roster does have the depth and ability to compete well in day to day Arch Madness games. We might really surprise some people. I think we will be a dangerous team to play. No matter how good you are, it's hard to win 3 games in one weekend. Four games, off the charts. Conference tournaments are for the money and for the teams that need a second chance. But they are really murder on the athletes.
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Post by paradeuce on Feb 19, 2024 19:41:54 GMT -6
After two (2) losses last week @ H to IL St & A @ SIU, the Tree's are in "reset mode." Some talk now re: Swope and his family NIL "tampering" and it's impact on his last 4-5 game shooting woes. Some idiot in TH is also allegedly selling T-shirts highlighting the "ISU Top 6," which obviously leaves out half the team! The HC is on the "hot seat" now after 3 yrs of "grace" for failing to develop his bench in those blowout wins.
No way in hell that ISU will win Arch Madness...and I'm predicting a BIG Aces win @ Ford over them!
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