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Post by municup14 on Jan 18, 2024 9:47:05 GMT -6
So we sit in 9th place after lastnight win two games behind 8th place.Three of our losses are to the 2,3,and 4th place teams and our other 2 losses were to Missouri St,and by the way they are in 8th and there only 2 conference wins were against the Aces.
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Post by austinace on Jan 18, 2024 12:46:24 GMT -6
Here is the link to the MVC standings: mvc-sports.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball- Drake, Indiana State, Bradley and even Murray State (a notch below) seem to have created some separation and I doubt we can crack this top four.
- Southern Illinois, Belmont, and UNI seem to have settled into the second tier of the MVC teams. If we got hot (with Ben back) we might have a shot at these teams.
- Missouri State, Illinois State and us are all 2-5. Even though we lost two to MSU, I think with Ben back we are the best 2-5 team going forward (if we stay healthy).
- UIC and Valpo are at the bottom with Valpo likely the worst team.
So maybe we are the eighth or ninth place MVC team. But I could see us as high as fifth place and probably no lower than eight or ninth place as long as we stay healthy. If for some reason our key players are not healthy (which we hope doesn't happen) then we might not win another game in a worst-case scenario. The question for me is if we can overtake UNI, Belmont and Southern Illinois in the standing and stay ahead of Missouri State and Illinois State. So we are a middle of the pack to lower middle of the pack MVC this year which is better than last place. So, we are seeing improvement. This is how I see the MVC standings shaping up at the moment. |
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Post by aceloverlarry on Jan 18, 2024 14:35:53 GMT -6
I think the Hackman graph will say we probably have around a 50% chance to finish in the 8/9 game at Arch Madness when the seasons over, but I really hope we can find our way into a 6 or 7 seed. 8/9 would leave us in the noon game on Thursday and then a noon game on Friday against the Sycamores (most likely).
Ideally we could get into the 6th seed and play the late game and then get an easier path to Saturday v the 3 seed. Not sure we’ll realistically be able to make up that much groundwork from our poor start, but hopefully we can at least get into the 7 seed so we play in the evenings in St Louis.
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Post by aceloverlarry on Jan 18, 2024 17:33:59 GMT -6
Looks very statistically improbable that we avoid the 8/9 spot. Hopefully we can defy odds and end up in the 7 seed still.
I honestly think I’d rather end up in the 10 spot than an 8/9 matchup with Missouri State like they predict. Although, there’s a chance Dana could be fired or the team completely quit on him by that point, but I’d rather not see another NJ Benson alley oop this year.
All things considered, an 8/9 finish would be a huge improvement over last season, but still disappointing compared to the high hopes we all had around Christmas. Extra disappointing considering things could’ve gone much different in the Murray and Missouri State games with a healthy roster imo.
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Post by ad1770 on Jan 18, 2024 18:10:21 GMT -6
Looks very statistically improbable that we avoid the 8/9 spot. Hopefully we can defy odds and end up in the 7 seed still. I honestly think I’d rather end up in the 10 spot than an 8/9 matchup with Missouri State like they predict. Although, there’s a chance Dana could be fired or the team completely quit on him by that point, but I’d rather not see another NJ Benson alley oop this year. All things considered, an 8/9 finish would be a huge improvement over last season, but still disappointing compared to the high hopes we all had around Christmas. Extra disappointing considering things could’ve gone much different in the Murray and Missouri State games with a healthy roster imo. Key words there. Healthy roster. When Ben plays, Aces are 11-2 (2-1 MVC) When Ben is out, Aces are 0-5 (0-4 MVC) You mentioned Murray, but I will contend they have played through the easiest part of their schedule as they have both games with the trees, SIU, and Belmont still, as well as return games with UE, Mo. St, Drake, UNI, and Bradley. Their “easiest” games remaining are the Redbirds who beat them once, and a single game with Valpo. They have already completed their series with UIC. While Murray currently sits at 5-2, that can quickly flip with their remaining schedule, and Ben is back. That can’t be stated enough. I believe a path to the 6 still exists. |
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Post by aceloverlarry on Jan 18, 2024 20:18:08 GMT -6
While Murray currently sits at 5-2, that can quickly flip with their remaining schedule, and Ben is back. That can’t be stated enough. I believe a path to the 6 still exists. A path to 6 still exists, it is just highly unlikely. That’s why Hackman shows a 1% for 6th and 3% for 7th. Kenpom currently predicts a tie for 5th & 6th at 11 wins. 7th place at 10 wins, and then Missouri state at 8 wins for 8th and a 3 way tie for 9th at 6 wins. I think we’ll definitely exceed 6 conference wins, but his prediction for the middle of the pack to be bunched up around a .500 conference record seems pretty likely and historically accurate for the conference. Considering we haven’t won a game in the state of Iowa since DJs senior year, it’s pretty likely we’re 2-7 by the time Illinois State comes to town. That means we have to go 8-3 the rest of the way to even be in the 6th seed conversation. That’s definitely not impossible, but we’ll have to play to our full potential every game for it to happen, and I’m not sure I’m that optimistic based on our start to conference play. You’re right Murray has played a relatively easier start to the schedule, but they’ve still shown up and won some games no one expected them to and taken care of business on the road. With 5 wins already, 8 wins is probably their floor and it’s pretty reasonable to expect them to win 10 games now with the remaining schedule. |
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Post by ibleedpurple on Jan 18, 2024 20:27:11 GMT -6
It is just nice we have a conversation on this forum where we discuss finishing anywhere but last in the league. We are just now beginning to climb our way out and I know we all hope the climb continues to get higher and higher. Long way to go but the process has begun with what I feel are with the right people involved from the Prez, to the AD, to the coaching staff and to our newest batch of players.
Go Aces !
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Post by acescott on Jan 18, 2024 20:47:32 GMT -6
I was hoping that Valpo could be counted on to gladly accept a last place participation trophy, after all how dare they try and buck the preseason predictions. But their road win at ISUr and very competititve showing against us shows me they're playing hard and improving. There's a beacon of light at the end of their tunnel...I see Ill. St., Valpo, us and UIC likely bringing up the rear. Still not bad odds on avoiding last place...
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Post by goacesgo on Jan 18, 2024 21:10:21 GMT -6
I was hoping that Valpo could be counted on to gladly accept a last place participation trophy, after all how dare they try and buck the preseason predictions. But their road win at ISUr and very competititve showing against us shows me they're playing hard and improving. There's a beacon of light at the end of their tunnel...I see Ill. St., Valpo, us and UIC likely bringing up the rear. Still not bad odds on avoiding last place... I think Valpo will upset some people, they have been playing better the last few games. |
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Post by stlscooter on Feb 1, 2024 12:59:48 GMT -6
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Post by aceloverlarry on Feb 8, 2024 15:55:09 GMT -6
Updated probabilities. We continue to outperform expectations and shift our seed probability higher and higher.
0.4% chance we get a bye. Probably unlikely but not impossible.
Keep winning and we should see ourselves shift into the 6-8 seed highly likely and out of the 8-10 highly likely.
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Post by austinace on Feb 8, 2024 18:30:26 GMT -6
Thanks for posting, Larry. Belmont, Murray and Missouri State seem to be the most likely teams that we can catch in the next three weeks. Big game at Murray State on Saturday at 3 pm.
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Post by ad1770 on Feb 9, 2024 3:55:05 GMT -6
While Murray currently sits at 5-2, that can quickly flip with their remaining schedule, and Ben is back. That can’t be stated enough. I believe a path to the 6 still exists. A path to 6 still exists, it is just highly unlikely. That’s why Hackman shows a 1% for 6th and 3% for 7th. Kenpom currently predicts a tie for 5th & 6th at 11 wins. 7th place at 10 wins, and then Missouri state at 8 wins for 8th and a 3 way tie for 9th at 6 wins. I think we’ll definitely exceed 6 conference wins, but his prediction for the middle of the pack to be bunched up around a .500 conference record seems pretty likely and historically accurate for the conference. Considering we haven’t won a game in the state of Iowa since DJs senior year, it’s pretty likely we’re 2-7 by the time Illinois State comes to town. That means we have to go 8-3 the rest of the way to even be in the 6th seed conversation. That’s definitely not impossible, but we’ll have to play to our full potential every game for it to happen, and I’m not sure I’m that optimistic based on our start to conference play. You’re right Murray has played a relatively easier start to the schedule, but they’ve still shown up and won some games no one expected them to and taken care of business on the road. With 5 wins already, 8 wins is probably their floor and it’s pretty reasonable to expect them to win 10 games now with the remaining schedule. Do you still believe the path to 6 is highly unlikely? |
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Post by aceloverlarry on Feb 9, 2024 10:20:38 GMT -6
A path to 6 still exists, it is just highly unlikely. That’s why Hackman shows a 1% for 6th and 3% for 7th. Kenpom currently predicts a tie for 5th & 6th at 11 wins. 7th place at 10 wins, and then Missouri state at 8 wins for 8th and a 3 way tie for 9th at 6 wins. I think we’ll definitely exceed 6 conference wins, but his prediction for the middle of the pack to be bunched up around a .500 conference record seems pretty likely and historically accurate for the conference. Considering we haven’t won a game in the state of Iowa since DJs senior year, it’s pretty likely we’re 2-7 by the time Illinois State comes to town. That means we have to go 8-3 the rest of the way to even be in the 6th seed conversation. That’s definitely not impossible, but we’ll have to play to our full potential every game for it to happen, and I’m not sure I’m that optimistic based on our start to conference play. You’re right Murray has played a relatively easier start to the schedule, but they’ve still shown up and won some games no one expected them to and taken care of business on the road. With 5 wins already, 8 wins is probably their floor and it’s pretty reasonable to expect them to win 10 games now with the remaining schedule. Do you still believe the path to 6 is highly unlikely? It depends on how you look at it. Do I think it is unlikely we get the 6th seed in St Louis? Yes. Do I think it’s highly unlikely we finish the season in a tie for 6th and end up 7th or 8th in St Louis? Not as much. If I’m reading this Hackman graph right, we have a 25% chance of the 6 seed if we finish .500 with a 50% chance of 7th and a 25% chance of 8th. If we can go 5-2, we should be in the 6th seed or better, but that’s going to take us showing up every night and playing damn good basketball down the stretch. I hope it happens but I’m not at the point of saying it’s likely yet. We’ll see how Saturday goes. It’s definitely possible, but we’re going to have to show up and play like we did Wednesday every game for the rest of the year. |
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Post by ad1770 on Feb 9, 2024 11:41:50 GMT -6
Do you still believe the path to 6 is highly unlikely? It depends on how you look at it. Do I think it is unlikely we get the 6th seed in St Louis? Yes. Do I think it’s highly unlikely we finish the season in a tie for 6th and end up 7th or 8th in St Louis? Not as much. If I’m reading this Hackman graph right, we have a 25% chance of the 6 seed if we finish .500 with a 50% chance of 7th and a 25% chance of 8th. If we can go 5-2, we should be in the 6th seed or better, but that’s going to take us showing up every night and playing damn good basketball down the stretch. I hope it happens but I’m not at the point of saying it’s likely yet. We’ll see how Saturday goes. It’s definitely possible, but we’re going to have to show up and play like we did Wednesday every game for the rest of the year. I see a clear path to the four seed now, especially with the win Wednesday. This has gotten kind of fun. |
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