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Post by austinace on Feb 9, 2024 6:25:12 GMT -6
So what exactly is the Ben factor. I decided to look at how we do against the spread with and without Ben and then to dive a little deeper on not just if we cover but the point differential against the spread when he plays and doesn't play. It is pretty enlightening. Bottom Line vs the Spread: With Ben: +8.4 (+126/15 games); Without Ben: -8.25 (-66/8 games). So, the Ben Factor seems to be 16.65 points. We seem to beat the spread on average by 8 points when he plays and we tend to do eight points worse than the spread when he doesn't play.
More Details: - We are 15-7-1 against the spread;
- We are 11-3-1 when Ben plays (Exceptions: BYU, Missouri State and Valpo(first game back but still a W));
- We are 4-4 against the spread when he doesn't play (but that is somewhat misleading as we barely covered on those);
- What is even more interesting is to see the point differential vs. the spread when Ben plays and doesn't on average.
Date | Opponent | Spread | Result | Did we cover? | Did Ben play?
| Pt Differential | Nov 6 | Miami-Ohio | +2.5 | W 72-64 | Yes | Yes | +10.5 | Nov 9
| UHSP | - | W 116-46 | - | - | - | Nov 15
| @semo | +2.5 | W 76-57
| Yes | Yes | +21.5 | Nov 18
| Ball St | + 1 | W 74-50
| Yes | Yes | +25 | Nov 24
| @chattanooga | +8.5 | W 85-77 (OT)
| Yes | Yes | +16.5 | Nov 25
| SEMO (N) | -5.5 | W 93-74
| Yes | Yes | +13.5 | Nov 29
| @missouri St | +10.5 | L 78-90
| No | Yes | -1.5 | Dec 2
| UNI | +3.5 | W 91-89 (OT)
| Yes | Yes | +5.5 | Dec 5
| @byu | +24.5 | L 55-96
| No | Yes | -16.5 | Dec 16
| @bellarmine | +1 | W 70-61
| Yes | Yes | +10 | Dec 18
| UTM | -7 | W 98-91
| Even | Yes | 0 | Dec 20
| Tn Tech | -9 | W 82-51
| Yes | Yes | +12 | Dec 29
| @cincinnati | +18.5 | L 58-76
| Yes | No | +0.5 | Jan 3
| @indiana State | +15 | L 73-87
| Yes | No | +1 | Jan 6
| Murray St | -1 | L 59-81
| No | No | -20 | Jan 10
| @bradley | 13 | L 50-86
| No | No | -23 | Jan 13
| Missouri St | 4.5 | L 64-74
| No | No | -5.5 | Jan 17
| Valpo | -7 | W 78-75
| No | Yes | -4 | Jan 20
| @drake | 17.5 | L 48-97
| No | No | -31.5 | Jan 23
| @uni | 13.5 | L 63-70
| Yes | No | +6.5 | Jan 27 | Illinois State | 2 | W 58-54
| Yes | No | +6 | Jan 31
| UIC | 1 | W 77-60
| Yes | Yes | +18 | Feb 3 | @ Valpo | 2 | W 63-62
| Yes | Yes | +3 | Feb 7 | Bradley | 9.5 | W 73-70
| Yes | Yes | +12.5 |
Source
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Post by gobebryant on Feb 9, 2024 9:19:59 GMT -6
So what exactly is the Ben factor. I decided to look at how we do against the spread with and without Ben and then to dive a little deeper on not just if we cover but the point differential against the spread when he plays and doesn't play. It is pretty enlightening. Bottom Line vs the Spread: With Ben: +8.4 (+126/15 games); Without Ben: -8.25 (-66/8 games). So, the Ben Factor seems to be 16.65 points. We seem to beat the spread on average by 8 points when he plays and we tend to do eight points worse than the spread when he doesn't play.
More Details: - We are 15-7-1 against the spread;
- We are 11-3-1 when Ben plays (Exceptions: BYU, UC and Valpo(first game back but still a W));
- We are 4-4 against the spread when he doesn't play (but that is somewhat misleading as we barely covered on those);
- What is even more interesting is to see the point differential vs. the spread when Ben plays and doesn't on average.
Date | Opponent | Spread | Result | Did we cover? | Did Ben play?
| Pt Differential | Nov 6 | Miami-Ohio | +2.5 | W 72-64 | Yes | Yes | +10.5 | Nov 9
| UHSP | - | W 116-46 | - | - | - | Nov 15
| @semo | +2.5 | W 76-57
| Yes | Yes | +21.5 | Nov 18
| Ball St | + 1 | W 74-50
| Yes | Yes | +25 | Nov 24
| @chattanooga | +8.5 | W 85-77 (OT)
| Yes | Yes | +16.5 | Nov 25
| SEMO (N) | -5.5 | W 93-74
| Yes | Yes | +13.5 | Nov 29
| @missouri St | +10.5 | L 78-90
| No | Yes | -1.5 | Dec 2
| UNI | +3.5 | W 91-89 (OT)
| Yes | Yes | +5.5 | Dec 5
| @byu | +24.5 | L 55-96
| No | Yes | -16.5 | Dec 16
| @bellarmine | +1 | W 70-61
| Yes | Yes | +10 | Dec 18
| UTM | -7 | W 98-91
| Even | Yes | 0 | Dec 20
| Tn Tech | -9 | W 82-51
| Yes | Yes | +12 | Dec 29
| @cincinnati | +18.5 | L 58-76
| Yes | No | +0.5 | Jan 3
| @indiana State | +15 | L 73-87
| Yes | No | +1 | Jan 6
| Murray St | -1 | L 59-81
| No | No | -20 | Jan 10
| @bradley | 13 | L 50-86
| No | No | -23 | Jan 13
| Missouri St | 4.5 | L 64-74
| No | No | -5.5 | Jan 17
| Valpo | -7 | W 78-75
| No | Yes | -4 | Jan 20
| @drake | 17.5 | L 48-97
| No | No | -31.5 | Jan 23
| @uni | 13.5 | L 63-70
| Yes | No | +6.5 | Jan 27 | Illinois State | 2 | W 58-54
| Yes | No | +6 | Jan 31
| UIC | 1 | W 77-60
| Yes | Yes | +18 | Feb 3 | @ Valpo | 2 | W 63-62
| Yes | Yes | +3 | Feb 7 | Bradley | 9.5 | W 73-70
| Yes | Yes | +12.5 |
SourceBen didn't play against Cincinnati, which actually helps your point of his important he is EDIT: I see it's right in the table after closer inspection, but you say "UC" in the exceptions in the write-up at the top
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Post by austinace on Feb 9, 2024 9:37:53 GMT -6
Ben didn't play against Cincinnati, which actually helps your point of his important he is EDIT: I see it's right in the table after closer inspection, but you say "UC" in the exceptions in the write-up at the top Great catch. That should have been Missouri State. I will correct.
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Post by austinace on Feb 9, 2024 9:49:50 GMT -6
You could actually take this one step further if you calculate per 40 minutes. He averages 28.6875 minutes per game (459/16 games).
So, if Ben is worth 16.65 points per game and he only plays 28.6875 minutes per game:
16.65/28.6875 = x/40
x = 23.22 points per 40 minutes.
So, Ben is worth 23.22 points per a 40-minute game or 0.58 points every minute he is on the floor.
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Post by youngacesfan on Feb 9, 2024 15:04:13 GMT -6
Ben could absolutely play in the nba but I’d have to think scouts would want him to return to work on a few things and prove that he can back this year up.
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Post by daddysboy on Feb 10, 2024 0:17:53 GMT -6
This is a lot. I’m simple. Eye test. The kid can play. He effects winning and team performance like a pro
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Post by stlscooter on Feb 10, 2024 10:26:10 GMT -6
Here's another look at what Ben means to this team:
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Post by austinace on Feb 10, 2024 11:06:31 GMT -6
Thanks, StlScooter for sharing. Those numbers are staggering. They imply that Ben makes 21 points difference on offense and about 8.5 points difference on defense. That is almost a difference of 30 points. Definitely easy to see his value to this team. These numbers make it easier to quantify why we get more W’s with him on the court.
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Post by aceslfer on Feb 10, 2024 12:02:53 GMT -6
Stats can be deceiving and interpreted differently, Yes, Ben has stats, but recall they have come against the weakest teams on our schedule. He DNP against Cincy, ISU, Drake, and Bradley on the road, he had 8 pts at BYU. His stats are compiled against SEMO twice, Miami O., Bellermine, UTM, TN TC, Ball St, UIC, Valpo twice. He had 14 against Bradley this week but it was one of his worst shooting nights. His best game came against probably the 6th best team we played at UTC, a game that went OT.
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Post by goacesgo on Feb 10, 2024 12:11:25 GMT -6
Stats can be deceiving and interpreted differently, Yes, Ben has stats, but recall they have come against the weakest teams on our schedule. He DNP against Cincy, ISU, Drake, and Bradley on the road, he had 8 pts at BYU. His stats are compiled against SEMO twice, Miami O., Bellermine, UTM, TN TC, Ball St, UIC, Valpo twice. He had 14 against Bradley this week but it was one of his worst shooting nights. His best game came against probably the 6th best team we played at UTC, a game that went OT. I don’t think he quite has his stroke back, but our spacing is better on offense. On defense the difference is very noticeable even from the eye without looking at the stats to verify.
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Post by austinace on Feb 10, 2024 13:15:35 GMT -6
Ben has certainly shown his value to the team and has clearly shown that he makes us a better team. He can only help his team beat the current team in front of them.
The adjusted player ratings in the Murray game thread that Ace78 posted are adjusted based on the “quality” of the opponents and based on points over 100 possessions (offensively and defensively). Not sure if those numbers posted were “overall” numbers but they clearly show that when “adjusted” for the quality of the opponent that Ben is still considered the best player on the floor today. The problem is that Murray has the next four “best” players on the floor based on these numbers and it is a road game.
There is a reason that we are a 8 to 8.5 point underdog today but Ben certainly increases our chances of winning. I also agree that he is not totally back to playing the way that he was before his injury (as GoAcesGo mentioned) but he is getting close. Some of this can be attributed to the increase in the quality of the opponents in conference play, for sure.
Now whether any of this makes Ben an NBA quality player, I will let the experts evaluate and decide that.
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Post by austinace on Feb 13, 2024 14:34:35 GMT -6
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Post by austinace on Feb 15, 2024 16:56:17 GMT -6
Jevin’s Azzip interview with Ben: /mediaViewer?currentTweet=1757887449420972504¤tTweetUser=UEAthletics
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Post by 65pointgame on Feb 15, 2024 21:25:12 GMT -6
Last play of the clip is one of the better passes I have seen this year -- Cuff to B-hum for the easy two.
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Post by Ace78 on Feb 16, 2024 15:39:18 GMT -6
A great article discussing Ben's choice of UE, his importance to UE, and how he has progressed into an MVC star ...
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